Commodities · resolved market
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e16995cf503447641ca6a27b40f0e6e1151256c1869e9b0082e7bda26463731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 19c | 16,133$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,036.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 12c | 7,840$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.24 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 11c | 4,473$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,164$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,677$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.71 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…7198backed Yes | 4c | 3,560$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 3,189$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 3,136$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.97 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…cbb2backed Yes | 11c | 2,937$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,911$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,635$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,624$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 30c | 2,568$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,252$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.58 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…d721backed Yes | 9c | 2,203$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,159$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.46 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 14c | 2,084$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.51 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 3c | 1,933$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,917$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.02 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 1,853$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,837$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,820$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,753$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked No | 78c | 1,592$1,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 1,543$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,542$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 14c | 1,525$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 1,410$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 1,377$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,345$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…575cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,322$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…530ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,276$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 76c | 1,076$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 5c | 1,003$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 11c | 978.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 899.22$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 77c | 776.72$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.66 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…914abacked Yes | 23c | 732.08$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 681.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 652.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 14c | 599.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…bf7abacked Yes | 17c | 585.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 12c | 515.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 506.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 9c | 455.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d312backed Yes | 22c | 451.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 448.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 16c | 433.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 15c | 432.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 425$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 10c | 391$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 7c | 329.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 55c | 326$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 13c | 318.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 12c | 316.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…bca8backed No | 79c | 309.37$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 20c | 298.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 21c | 294.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519e…edbdbacked Yes | 7c | 288.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…46edbacked Yes | 9c | 280$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 7c | 276.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 8c | 259.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…4496backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 30c | 250$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 13c | 249.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 77c | 240$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 236.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x17ac…bd73backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…b608backed No | 75c | 223.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…0ca9backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Yes | 18c | 222.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…e42ebacked Yes | 9c | 215.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…b502backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…b7b0backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Yes | 25c | 195$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 192$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…b0febacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 6c | 163.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 8c | 162.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 7c | 149.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 77c | 144.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…eceebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…d5b4backed No | 80c | 125.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…975bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec23…ac24backed Yes | 30c | 109.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.