Commodities · resolved market
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc814d99d29c8ed04f8d76c942dba35ed5ac28351270ff3fdec33b1715739f530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 22,888$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.49 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 13,012$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…cbdabacked Yes | 1c | 10,806$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,214$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,944$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,316$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,305$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2d…8991backed Yes | 5c | 1,283$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…668fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,235$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1e65backed Yes | 5c | 1,231$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…1321backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…7a24backed Yes | 5c | 992$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…e4ebbacked Yes | 5c | 991.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…5fd3backed Yes | 5c | 990$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…ad4ebacked Yes | 5c | 990$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…7575backed Yes | 5c | 990$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5796…7b65backed Yes | 5c | 990$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…750bbacked Yes | 5c | 979.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…234cbacked Yes | 5c | 978$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aee…28b4backed Yes | 5c | 977.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…e9fdbacked Yes | 4c | 969.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…7dd9backed Yes | 4c | 969.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…d3eebacked Yes | 5c | 963$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…f1c7backed Yes | 4c | 939.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b2…f2f0backed Yes | 4c | 890$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 4c | 681.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 649.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…10c0backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…97acbacked Yes | 3c | 371.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 3c | 343$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 15c | 124.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 23c | 106.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.