Commodities · resolved market

Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7213866c5685140c8dcc271b8e4c9c4003d17e6e47b2399e15daf14334901f01

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $106,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $100,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,152 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Commodities
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x152f…a549backed Yes	6c	23,330$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes	1c	5,252$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	7c	2,000$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.8	210	15.7%33 W · 177 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	8c	1,333$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.9	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	1c	1,290$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.66	73	8.2%6 W · 67 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	5c	1,105$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.7	140	31.4%44 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	120	11.7%14 W · 106 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+178.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	908.21$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.72	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	5c	820.04$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.18	308	39.6%122 W · 186 L	-17.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	4c	700$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	59	16.9%10 W · 49 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	7c	691$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.65	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	606$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	1,032	9.3%96 W · 936 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	110	32.7%36 W · 74 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes	3c	432.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes	4c	320$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-6.0wins	-0.31per pick	42cpaid	-84.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	6c	220$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	7c	174.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	123	48.8%60 W · 63 L	+8.5wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32c9…cd8dbacked Yes	10c	111.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed Yes	50c	34.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	50c	29.23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+6.4wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+65.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event