Commodities · resolved market
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122febf83360eb8113abd4a634c23e784bf29ddc00c10208684fb54b08e1872a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,941$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,446$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…b0febacked Yes | 0c | 3,170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…1df6backed Yes | 2c | 1,939$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5225…ae99backed Yes | 2c | 1,266$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,075$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…b578backed Yes | 2c | 984$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…7ea6backed Yes | 2c | 982$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa0…457dbacked Yes | 2c | 980$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e0…e9babacked Yes | 2c | 963.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…eb34backed Yes | 2c | 950$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…4438backed Yes | 1c | 940$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…3f92backed Yes | 2c | 940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…8272backed Yes | 2c | 940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf831…c94ebacked Yes | 1c | 935$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…1a88backed Yes | 1c | 934.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…053dbacked Yes | 1c | 934.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 934.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8357backed Yes | 2c | 919$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 892.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3140backed Yes | 1c | 850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb640…abffbacked Yes | 1c | 846$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…0cffbacked Yes | 2c | 816$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…0cf5backed Yes | 2c | 816$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 804$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…4357backed Yes | 2c | 740$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6cd7backed Yes | 2c | 740$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.