Commodities · resolved market

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0f5596263aa1d3dffbe903502f8134864f0b5d8c102c66631b9636b5cc9e4b

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $139,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $130,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,172 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Commodities
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	10c	8,964$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.49	77	23.4%18 W · 59 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe555…a91dbacked Yes	14c	7,484$1,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,013.19	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	3,979$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.45	103	5.8%6 W · 97 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes	8c	3,839$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.51	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc504…789fbacked Yes	19c	3,414$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.66	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	36cpaid	+82.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe05…cbb2backed Yes	5c	3,201$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	2,777$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	222	1.4%3 W · 219 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	15c	2,303$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.33	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes	4c	2,075$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.65	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	10c	1,876$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.91	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes	13c	1,819$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,755$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.03	1,030	9.2%95 W · 935 L	-25.0wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	11c	1,438$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.3	144	29.9%43 W · 101 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes	12c	1,369$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.73	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	7c	1,335$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-79%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	1,330$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.82	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	7c	1,197$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.55	195	35.4%69 W · 126 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda10…1028backed Yes	8c	1,182$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb40…c661backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	6c	1,096$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes	22c	979.76$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.86	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+3.2wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	+14%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x132d…b771backed Yes	14c	810.09$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.75	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No	80c	804.02$643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.8	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	71cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes	6c	750.43$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.08	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes	13c	746.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…5073backed Yes	9c	707.4$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.42	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	6c	687.01$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ba…2a38backed Yes	10c	675$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0965…ac46backed Yes	6c	666.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c4a…d721backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	605.61$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	76	5.3%4 W · 72 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…485bbacked Yes	14c	597.73$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	14c	579.91$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.19	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+5.8wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	11c	551.56$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.56	210	15.7%33 W · 177 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7cb…83a5backed Yes	7c	530.43$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.13	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	78	60.3%47 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35a4…7b85backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+4.5wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	8c	500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	91	1.1%1 W · 90 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-30%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes	7c	492$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.43	135	38.5%52 W · 83 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes	12c	488.69$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.54	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519e…edbdbacked Yes	3c	458.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes	14c	449.97$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.99	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes	6c	400.38$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	75	26.7%20 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes	13c	380$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	58cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes	5c	353.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+526.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x551b…b47ebacked Yes	4c	349.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1643…1b0cbacked Yes	9c	324.44$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	5c	278.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	140	31.4%44 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	15c	276$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.34	50	36%18 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes	10c	251.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59cc…b0febacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13c9…14abbacked Yes	20c	248.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b13…67debacked Yes	15c	202.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed No	79c	200$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	34cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35d…5df9backed Yes	14c	165$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0158…5d25backed Yes	11c	154.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	11c	122.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	185	40.5%75 W · 110 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e9…975bbacked Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd92…3482backed Yes	11c	121.32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.19	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes	17c	108.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1a5…f928backed Yes	19c	101.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	64	75%48 W · 16 L	+7.6wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4401…aea5backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf82…92f2backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ff…78e3backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	15c	96.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	69	33.3%23 W · 46 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No	79c	88.61$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.61	40	77.5%31 W · 9 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	68cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes	17c	60.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event