Commodities · resolved market

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db0aa493f422a594d476d6e7a4bd7a8e32d776077cffaa5183e51b5fff1881b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $288,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $372,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,509 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Commodities
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xec1f…d325backed Yes	6c	41,813$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,399.84	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	2c	35,302$839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$838.61	87	34.5%30 W · 57 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	1c	5,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.17	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	3,802$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.79	103	5.8%6 W · 97 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	2c	3,137$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.35	77	23.4%18 W · 59 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	3,070$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	222	1.4%3 W · 219 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d5…4921backed Yes	4c	2,993$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	6c	2,327$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.35	99	14.1%14 W · 85 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes	3c	2,137$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.48	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-4.6wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,900$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.12	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	3c	1,451$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.51	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	27cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…485bbacked Yes	10c	1,449$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	6c	1,267$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.69	140	31.4%44 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,119$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	198	7.1%14 W · 184 L	-10.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes	2c	1,115$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	210	15.7%33 W · 177 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f88…7e43backed Yes	1c	990$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x494d…59f6backed Yes	2c	969.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc2…a210backed Yes	2c	969.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda9…629cbacked Yes	2c	958$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5795…fdd8backed Yes	2c	957.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e77…7bd2backed Yes	2c	910$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cab…ff14backed Yes	2c	870$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	5c	800$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	3c	800$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	91	1.1%1 W · 90 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	6c	753.71$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.57	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	592.18$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.16	1,024	9.1%93 W · 931 L	-25.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes	10c	520.86$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No	34c	508$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.25	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes	3c	493.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	3c	411.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47d7…df89backed Yes	14c	400.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.54	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	53	0%0 W · 53 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes	4c	400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4653…62e2backed Yes	3c	397.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No	80c	379.15$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.83	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	71cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	5c	345.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	69	2.9%2 W · 67 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	10c	253.18$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	5c	250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	195	35.4%69 W · 126 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	35c	200$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131	75	48%36 W · 39 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes	6c	166.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	69	33.3%23 W · 46 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	9c	152.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	184	40.2%74 W · 110 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x065e…cf28backed No	80c	37.53$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No	70c	26.65$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.1	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event