NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9952913705e53674b776383fb2e56291ac7555dca235e616c3d8b73f3624dfff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaef5…db40backed Over | 59c | 4,539$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…dea0backed Over | 59c | 4,261$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 9c | 1,463$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 44c | 986.53$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.07 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 954$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…ae29backed Under | 41c | 928$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…6b22backed Under | 41c | 920$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc071…b71abacked Under | 41c | 908$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…db22backed Under | 41c | 897$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…96bebacked Under | 41c | 886$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c0…2affbacked Under | 41c | 875$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…966fbacked Under | 41c | 863$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…0892backed Under | 41c | 852$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa350…5809backed Under | 41c | 841$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…ebbcbacked Under | 41c | 830$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 10c | 630.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 29c | 390.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…3f90backed Over | 66c | 303.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 67c | 295.06$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 34c | 292.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 60c | 265.12$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 251.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 230.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 214.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 41c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 28c | 170.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Over | 61c | 163.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 26c | 147.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…ef8dbacked Over | 58c | 146.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89c…8937backed Over | 62c | 128.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Over | 66c | 112.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 40c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 37c | 102.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 31c | 83.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 38c | 70.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 40c | 57.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…0a7abacked Under | 45c | 55.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 54.1%99 W · 84 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 32c | 50.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…6e0dbacked Over | 57c | 48.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over | 59c | 45.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…bc8cbacked Over | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…6259backed Over | 77c | 35.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…cce4backed Over | 60c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213a…c46dbacked Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 27.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 26.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 55c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5this page
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-16.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-17.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.