TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Magic, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,206 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies54c37,111$20,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,071.2187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic46c37,000$17,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,0201,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Magic45c10,678$4,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.087653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Grizzlies53c8,552$4,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,019.3635450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies54c6,842$3,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,129.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb2…8bc3backed Grizzlies54c4,894$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e89…3bb5backed Grizzlies54c4,506$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…ebbcbacked Grizzlies54c4,363$2,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa350…5809backed Grizzlies54c4,137$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4101,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe756…b81cbacked Grizzlies53c2,900$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x390b…d139backed Grizzlies53c2,600$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Magic47c1,600$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75243453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…0ab2backed Magic47c1,450$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacdb…7ff7backed Magic47c1,450$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a397backed Magic47c1,400$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Magic47c1,327$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d4…44b3backed Magic49c1,211$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5904757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19bb…445bbacked Magic47c1,200$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies54c1,029$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.222,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f0…3fb1backed Magic46c1,010$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Grizzlies55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45041553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…d279backed Magic46c994$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63f5…b89dbacked Magic46c979$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e99…7b4abacked Magic46c963$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4937…b8bcbacked Magic46c948$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7e…552bbacked Magic46c932$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd1…b15dbacked Magic46c917$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec7…2924backed Magic46c901$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d5…ae29backed Magic46c898$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe041…9d2dbacked Magic46c886$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies61c879.03$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.953,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x428e…6b22backed Magic46c879$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc071…b71abacked Magic46c871$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0b7…4103backed Magic46c870$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60c0…2affbacked Magic46c862$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc588…db22backed Magic46c853$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…96bebacked Magic46c845$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f44…966fbacked Magic46c836$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f91…0892backed Magic46c827$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef5…db40backed Magic46c819$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.74425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1520…dea0backed Magic46c810$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Magic46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36835749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Magic47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37684342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Grizzlies53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0437930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Grizzlies52c471.94$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5319434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Magic47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87df…0317backed Grizzlies55c416.36$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.36887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4301…6fc0backed Grizzlies55c363.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.444429.5%13 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Magic48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14451146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic48c288.33$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.876,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies75c231.51$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.388,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9695548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Magic46c199.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.592,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic47c199.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.742,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Grizzlies55c179.42$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7457250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Grizzlies26c179.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6139018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic47c136.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.553,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b58…7061backed Grizzlies52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Magic46c82.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1352246.6%243 W · 279 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Grizzlies55c70.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7136247.5%172 W · 190 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Grizzlies51c69.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9368940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Grizzlies52c63.71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5822953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Magic48c58.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.845244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf417…0cf5backed Grizzlies55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.551338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d22…95b7backed Grizzlies54c51.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.94951%25 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…6e0dbacked Magic46c48.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Grizzlies55c42.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1638350.4%193 W · 190 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Magic52c38.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024248.3%117 W · 125 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Grizzlies55c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6524442.6%104 W · 140 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies48c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.243,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236a…1a3ebacked Grizzlies55c35.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.828341%34 W · 49 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Grizzlies54c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5388845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15d…d581backed Magic48c31.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510739.3%42 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed Magic46c28.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1319748.2%95 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Grizzlies55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2733552.8%177 W · 158 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ed…a870backed Grizzlies55c21.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.865641.1%23 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Magic47c21.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016942.6%72 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Grizzlies53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411650.9%59 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.