NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0405df27c385cb4abf728745fdabe2f5fd4dc125133bda07cf24379dbfbf49f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 46c | 120,100$55,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,245.93 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 54c | 118,229$63,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,385.37 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 15,339$6,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,967.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…ffa9backed Over | 53c | 7,547$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,547.17 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +10.8wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…966fbacked Over | 55c | 5,593$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.2 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f91…0892backed Over | 55c | 3,507$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a397backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…445bbacked Over | 55c | 2,800$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 56c | 2,689$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.92 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 2,207$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 46c | 1,838$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…0ab2backed Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…b81cbacked Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…7ff7backed Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 54c | 1,373$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.76 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x390b…d139backed Under | 45c | 1,300$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Over | 55c | 1,259$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.75 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 1,059$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.32 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 995$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.19 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…ae29backed Under | 45c | 966$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…6b22backed Under | 45c | 958$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc071…b71abacked Under | 45c | 944$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60c0…2affbacked Under | 46c | 931$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…db22backed Under | 45c | 917$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…96bebacked Under | 45c | 904$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…db40backed Under | 45c | 889.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…dea0backed Under | 46c | 877$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…ebbcbacked Under | 45c | 863$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa350…5809backed Under | 45c | 850$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 52c | 694.78$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 54c | 473$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.58 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 54c | 448.08$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed Over | 55c | 417.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.73 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 344.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…78f3backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 55c | 196.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 43c | 177$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 55c | 108.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…7657backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…805bbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 44c | 54.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 54c | 44.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…783bbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1271…a720backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 54c | 28.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 25.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 54c | 20.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…b4fabacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…c12abacked Over | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Over | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5this page
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-16.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-17.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.