NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ebd670fb8c6f7dd4b5bb09fb730057a3371bec3af4fc1ae8992d7bc0718640e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Magic, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Magic | 44c | 128,000$56,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,319.99 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 126,211$70,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,533.02 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Grizzlies | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 2,861$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Magic | 41c | 2,621$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.74 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a2…0a6abacked Magic | 43c | 2,473$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Magic | 45c | 1,465$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.36 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Magic | 45c | 1,262$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.95 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…c549backed Grizzlies | 59c | 1,010$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.17 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Grizzlies | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.37 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Magic | 48c | 963.66$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.47 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Magic | 44c | 932.97$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.93 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Grizzlies | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 770.7$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Magic | 43c | 699.97$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.99 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…9c28backed Grizzlies | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 69c | 475.59$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 57c | 425.32$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.89 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Grizzlies | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Grizzlies | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Magic | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Grizzlies | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 199.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Grizzlies | 57c | 193.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Grizzlies | 59c | 183.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe833…1723backed Grizzlies | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Magic | 48c | 146.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Magic | 44c | 126.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Grizzlies | 57c | 97.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 243 | 63.8%155 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Grizzlies | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Grizzlies | 55c | 72.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Magic | 42c | 54.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Grizzlies | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 29c | 51.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Grizzlies | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Grizzlies | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Magic | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Grizzlies | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 56c | 45.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Grizzlies | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…a266backed Grizzlies | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Grizzlies | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Grizzlies | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…6e99backed Magic | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Grizzlies | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Grizzlies | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Magic | 45c | 27.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Magic | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Grizzlies | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-16.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-17.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.