NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f266ab0f389d056e169e233157ff1512e3a8a65e663fe78be54c400689da402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 55c | 43,596$24,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,052.54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 16,664$7,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,167.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 15,000$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,250 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 7,012$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,847.1 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 46c | 6,583$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,554.61 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 1,427$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 682.81$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.92 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 55c | 654$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.7 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Over | 45c | 627.22$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.97 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 48c | 599.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 475.55$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.83 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…a4d2backed Under | 52c | 458.77$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.97 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 51c | 415.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.15 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 7c | 233.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 53c | 203.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 50c | 130.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Under | 50c | 120.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 43c | 104.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7eb8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 46c | 84.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…44b3backed Over | 48c | 61.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Under | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…d1cbbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…0768backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 35.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644f…c5e9backed Under | 54c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 56c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 27.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cba…9988backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 24.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5this page
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-16.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-17.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.