NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86ae1bcbe8ac831e0b951497d1bdc45551dd3888e7558847dc4f406ba27c67a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 7,431$3,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,783.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Under | 50c | 4,260$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 2,676$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 1,884$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.42 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 1,586$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.47 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Under | 50c | 1,548$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.92 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 1,497$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.67 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,477$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.17 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 915.32$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.07 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 49c | 859.91$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.55 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 859.91$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f2f2backed Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 50c | 533$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 426.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 50c | 246$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 26c | 148.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 128$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 51c | 121.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Over | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 102.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…8071backed Over | 34c | 101.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 259 | 51.4%133 W · 126 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922e…7d04backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Under | 51c | 93.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 73.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…2388backed Over | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…bc8cbacked Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 68c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…e9f8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 219.5this page
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.