NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4fecf79657e5c9a65044e072096c4f5817a53980e3ceb0d45ee187d7c6ba45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,746$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 58c | 400.13$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 58c | 393.1$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…0b12backed Under | 54c | 390$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Over | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 196.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 56c | 195$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bd…8b0ebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 20c | 185.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…d703backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 156.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 66c | 133.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 78c | 128.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 114.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Under | 60c | 102.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e54…5fdfbacked Over | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 57c | 87.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 58c | 72.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 70.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 57c | 63.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 57c | 61.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 57c | 61.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 51c | 58.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614f…114dbacked Under | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 335 | 47.2%158 W · 177 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 43c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…bc35backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…7cfcbacked Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…6a83backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Under | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5this page
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 219.5Under won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.