TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Raptors, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,672,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,812,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,672,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 927 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf2db…aa08backed Raptors40c62,500$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,5001442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Warriors60c62,390$37,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,433.858961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors11c46,695$5,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,010.318,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Raptors59c40,994$24,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,851.0410746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors41c36,470$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,469.7876746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors6c34,861$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.561,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Warriors59c33,617$19,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,696.9351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Warriors59c30,000$17,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,549.931,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Raptors51c28,228$14,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,851.427062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors30c27,446$8,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,266.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Raptors39c27,187$10,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,584.1823257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors43c26,666$11,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,359.532,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors21c26,561$5,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,652.641,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Raptors40c25,640$10,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,384.2551844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Raptors74c22,119$16,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,703.1619653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Warriors4c21,517$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.941,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors39c21,279$8,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,917.294,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Warriors60c21,238$12,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,773.1956945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Warriors1c20,987$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.735213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors75c18,345$13,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,622.095,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors58c17,910$10,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,308.974748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Raptors42c16,905$7,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,754.7618151.4%93 W · 88 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Raptors54c16,520$8,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,639.1927865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raptors41c15,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,899.9635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Warriors58c14,997$8,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,748.477348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Raptors45c14,925$6,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,189.3211142.3%47 W · 64 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Raptors42c14,000$5,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,14046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Warriors61c13,787$8,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,430.7121440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c13,756$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.068820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Warriors41c13,647$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,601.9729748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Warriors4c13,479$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.6127917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors60c12,877$7,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,726.3587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors59c12,786$7,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,484.982,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed Warriors18c11,424$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf2f6…9249backed Raptors42c11,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,379.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+106.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Warriors22c10,336$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30014254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Warriors46c10,200$4,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.759646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors4c10,163$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.421,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee39…a40abacked Raptors40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Warriors61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,10038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Warriors59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,899.9835450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Warriors58c9,374$5,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,436.9162347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Raptors40c8,779$3,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,267.1228439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Raptors58c8,621$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,620.6921944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Raptors41c8,220$3,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,849.848347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Warriors60c8,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80016635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Warriors59c8,000$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,719.856454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Warriors2c7,899$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.4781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed Warriors8c7,522$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.034245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Warriors4c7,446$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.183039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors39c7,000$2,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2702,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Raptors41c6,767$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992.513239.4%52 W · 80 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Warriors59c6,755$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0008662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Raptors69c6,369$4,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.7216863.1%106 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors60c6,167$3,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.471,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Warriors28c6,165$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.5689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Warriors63c6,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,750.131,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Raptors41c5,910$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,486.767850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors64c5,500$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.823,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Warriors31c5,500$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.6273649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Warriors59c5,000$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,95013249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa827…1adbbacked Raptors41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9502931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Raptors40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9737539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Warriors10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Raptors40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9516641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Raptors37c4,950$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.4878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc736…2a9bbacked Warriors3c4,901$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.614634.8%16 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors60c4,891$2,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.952,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Warriors58c4,660$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.7326751.7%138 W · 129 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60c2…f534backed Raptors43c4,500$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7973…34d4backed Raptors39c4,359$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.975437%20 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Raptors40c4,304$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.5928742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70d…e7d6backed Warriors58c4,260$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Raptors41c4,128$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.7248944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Warriors66c4,119$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.0861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b9…b6a9backed Warriors2c4,076$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005427.8%15 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Raptors65c4,068$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.9414751%75 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…9500backed Warriors3c4,035$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+39.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Raptors40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02ee…6605backed Raptors52c3,869$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.3111251.8%58 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d26…1c15backed Warriors59c3,838$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.422459.4%133 W · 91 L-0.6wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors39c3,816$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.463,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Raptors73c3,761$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.1814334.3%49 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Warriors58c3,716$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.3530947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Raptors33c3,668$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.061,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Raptors34c3,668$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.1334654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors59c3,654$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.356,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Warriors4c3,600$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.682,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Raptors56c3,591$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Raptors40c3,461$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.3227424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Raptors62c3,350$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.8450838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Raptors40c3,247$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.2636741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Warriors2c3,239$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.48783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Warriors62c3,234$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.2641954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Warriors59c3,120$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.611,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Raptors43c3,090$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.4848137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Warriors60c3,005$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.1536950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8301,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Raptors41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Warriors5c2,933$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.21034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.