NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd24c252a8dc5151bed6a354300a36bd806ae5c81a84e5fd26ebdf71ead3d4967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.98 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 16,224$7,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,567.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Over | 48c | 13,502$6,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,021.05 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 52c | 7,006$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,643.36 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…ed6bbacked Over | 48c | 6,954$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,616.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 6,702$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 53c | 5,186$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.35 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 4,367$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…53a9backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 27c | 2,840$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.8 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…40f1backed Over | 48c | 2,088$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 53c | 2,056$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Under | 53c | 1,996$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 1,886$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.72 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 1,755$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.63 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 50c | 1,583$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.5 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 45c | 1,525$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.25 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 1,164$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.45 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 53c | 915.09$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 801.89$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.23 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 717.35$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.35 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 520.38$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 48c | 437.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 53c | 410.87$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.76 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 78c | 396.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Over | 49c | 335$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Over | 49c | 204.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…fde1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 27c | 168.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Over | 48c | 127.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 48c | 116.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…b9b2backed Over | 48c | 103.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 86.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 76c | 57.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 57.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…1f8bbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…4c28backed Over | 78c | 50.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 50.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 50c | 50.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Under | 53c | 46.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…ec41backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…788dbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a4b5backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…72e3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5this page
- Raptors vs. WarriorsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.