NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a424c2dbef6b06dca81f04b18b1dc0b0e057f357366811f0f4c17faa065f4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Warriors, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Warriors | 44c | 6,418$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.5 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 56c | 4,113$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Raptors | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 44c | 921.21$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raptors | 55c | 795$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.77 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Raptors | 55c | 671.64$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Warriors | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raptors | 55c | 264.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Raptors | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Warriors | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 400 | 35.5%142 W · 258 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Raptors | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Warriors | 7c | 158.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Raptors | 59c | 135.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Raptors | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Raptors | 57c | 52.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…2f93backed Raptors | 57c | 51.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Raptors | 57c | 43.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Raptors | 57c | 37.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Raptors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Raptors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Raptors | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors | 56c | 30.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 43c | 28.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Warriors | 44c | 27.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Raptors | 56c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…c3b8backed Warriors | 43c | 24.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)this page
- Raptors vs. WarriorsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.