NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31fa05b81e61abc9e04d6228f2cd7715275382323c41f54f4edd5ade3236102a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 55c | 2,406$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.27 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 44c | 2,198$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.73 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 1,648$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.37 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 566.85$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Under | 55c | 545.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 427.75$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe711…3dd2backed Under | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 409.6$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.9 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 397.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 41c | 303.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.03 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 25c | 223.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Under | 16c | 205.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed Under | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 57c | 125$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 52c | 58.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 45c | 56.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 23c | 52.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Over | 40c | 39.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Under | 42c | 39.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 30.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 44c | 27.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Under | 60c | 25.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…5848backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Under | 61c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- Raptors vs. WarriorsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.