NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff9f548b0242ae019da21d69c548cccdffe2a6002d468c33d29dbcf232a5e85e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Warriors, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $402,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $403,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $402,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Raptors | 45c | 343,719$154,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189,052.96 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Warriors | 55c | 300,000$165,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165,000 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…058bbacked Raptors | 45c | 41,177$18,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,647.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 55c | 25,631$14,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,097.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Warriors | 55c | 22,222$12,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,222.1 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 55c | 16,842$9,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,265.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 55c | 7,500$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,125 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Warriors | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 55c | 5,000$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 48c | 3,297$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Raptors | 46c | 3,290$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.6 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 54c | 2,513$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.8 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 55c | 2,372$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.01 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Warriors | 55c | 2,301$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.59 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Warriors | 56c | 1,364$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 46c | 1,051$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Warriors | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Raptors | 44c | 517$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.52 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors | 46c | 291.04$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…d581backed Warriors | 34c | 281.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Warriors | 55c | 249.09$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Warriors | 54c | 221.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…535abacked Raptors | 46c | 202.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Warriors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Warriors | 56c | 179.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Warriors | 55c | 127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Raptors | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…4ebcbacked Warriors | 55c | 90.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Raptors | 45c | 88.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Raptors | 45c | 85.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…59abbacked Raptors | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Raptors | 46c | 64.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Warriors | 56c | 64.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Warriors | 52c | 60.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 166 | 42.2%70 W · 96 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 22c | 59.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 54c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Warriors | 50c | 56.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Warriors | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Warriors | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Warriors | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Warriors | 55c | 47.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Warriors | 56c | 43.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Warriors | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Warriors | 53c | 39.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Warriors | 55c | 38.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Raptors | 46c | 35.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…9f2cbacked Warriors | 54c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors | 46c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Warriors | 54c | 32.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…7ea8backed Warriors | 56c | 30.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Warriors | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…5b75backed Raptors | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…b987backed Warriors | 51c | 27.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors | 53c | 27.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…3e2abacked Warriors | 55c | 24.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Warriors | 50c | 22.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Warriors | 56c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…f2cabacked Warriors | 54c | 21.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…a336backed Warriors | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)this page
- Raptors vs. WarriorsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.