NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64cce413566396036bdec8a8c5d628a30da6217a18e474ada7d77507ab1c56f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Warriors, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 41c | 715.33$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Raptors | 58c | 426$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Raptors | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Raptors | 71c | 350$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b1…0436backed Warriors | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Warriors | 4c | 279.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 258 | 40.7%105 W · 153 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Warriors | 43c | 249.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 62c | 240.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 40c | 238$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Warriors | 41c | 173.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 153 | 36.6%56 W · 97 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Raptors | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 38c | 143.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Raptors | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Warriors | 18c | 105.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Warriors | 41c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Warriors | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors | 41c | 53.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Raptors | 59c | 50.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raptors | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Warriors | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…1f46backed Raptors | 60c | 49.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Warriors | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 37c | 47.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Raptors | 58c | 35.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Raptors | 62c | 34.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Warriors | 43c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Raptors | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)this page
- Raptors vs. WarriorsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.