Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53098776eb95dbbd2e899c4fcd787a043ba725f55433948da2fbd00abdfcd3ae

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,704,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,729,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,704,920 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes	5c	743,161$36,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36,210.53	152	30.3%46 W · 106 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	4c	538,124$23,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,000.4	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	5c	262,196$12,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,030.47	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	5c	218,566$10,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,770.5	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes	7c	201,643$14,936 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,936.14	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	8c	169,050$13,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,373.83	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	6c	165,010$9,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,239.39	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36f…cd91backed Yes	4c	144,030$6,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,399.15	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	34cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	6c	131,641$8,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,142.35	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes	7c	113,222$7,716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,716.45	58	36.2%21 W · 37 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+73%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x293e…4717backed Yes	4c	111,235$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	5c	99,826$4,820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,819.8	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182b…f3d3backed Yes	2c	89,193$1,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	6c	56,589$3,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,410.25	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c9…396dbacked Yes	6c	55,844$3,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,618.55	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc15b…38afbacked Yes	9c	50,000$4,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,600	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	7c	46,000$3,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,287.84	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes	3c	44,019$1,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,196.87	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes	6c	43,166$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,625.17	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	2c	42,719$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,064.51	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes	2c	41,858$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.17	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	+9.5wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	4c	41,399$1,785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,785	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes	2c	40,510$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.81	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes	5c	36,342$1,941 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,940.67	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes	4c	35,567$1,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.88	115	27%31 W · 84 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc16…d936backed Yes	1c	35,533$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.93	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+61.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes	6c	34,972$2,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,194.09	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+4.5wins	+0.17per pick	17cpaid	+143.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes	4c	34,350$1,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,373.26	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	13cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed Yes	6c	32,414$2,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,009.67	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe87c…0020backed Yes	3c	31,787$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.52	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes	4c	31,448$1,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,155.63	89	28.1%25 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+74.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes	9c	31,423$2,674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,674.06	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes	7c	30,443$2,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,089	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes	1c	28,500$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.08	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Yes	4c	28,000$996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d17…9054backed Yes	3c	26,800$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	6c	25,439$1,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,434.62	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes	7c	23,486$1,569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,568.56	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4146…86e3backed Yes	3c	22,902$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.75	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes	7c	22,221$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,516.58	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes	5c	22,089$1,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.25	86	41.9%36 W · 50 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34f1…4c93backed Yes	4c	20,350$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes	6c	20,244$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.26	130	22.3%29 W · 101 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes	3c	20,200$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.8	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+44%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x50bb…bcc8backed Yes	4c	17,613$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.62	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	5c	16,533$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873.32	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21d4…db6cbacked Yes	3c	16,191$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes	7c	16,015$1,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,130	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2222…f221backed Yes	4c	15,801$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682.31	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes	6c	15,577$922 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$922.2	203	36.9%75 W · 128 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes	3c	15,508$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.05	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+11%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	7c	15,246$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.8	486	30.5%148 W · 338 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	6c	14,823$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.45	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	5c	13,853$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.27	284	27.8%79 W · 205 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes	4c	13,235$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.23	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x946e…1225backed Yes	5c	13,219$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.6	72	29.2%21 W · 51 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a2…b1a0backed Yes	5c	12,968$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.18per pick	13cpaid	+400.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5b…7796backed Yes	7c	12,700$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.56	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes	5c	12,546$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.73	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551b…b47ebacked Yes	4c	12,412$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes	4c	12,208$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.47	183	38.3%70 W · 113 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	3c	12,000$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb119…8d46backed Yes	5c	11,894$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.35	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a7…62ecbacked Yes	3c	11,496$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	3c	11,413$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.47	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	8c	11,391$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.47	241	49.4%119 W · 122 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8844…ff13backed Yes	4c	11,304$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…47cebacked Yes	3c	11,194$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.72	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe541…d45dbacked Yes	10c	11,111$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.92	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	6c	10,906$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.27	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a34…f9d3backed Yes	8c	10,900$861 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…8694backed Yes	4c	10,737$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+86.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ef…cff5backed Yes	9c	10,662$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde5…93e0backed Yes	5c	10,582$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.47	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes	4c	10,025$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.53	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	5c	9,829$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.53	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes	9c	9,822$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.22	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes	4c	9,483$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.17	115	45.2%52 W · 63 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x412c…2d87backed Yes	6c	9,376$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.93	74	33.8%25 W · 49 L	+11.5wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	+259.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes	4c	9,294$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.66	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	6c	9,152$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.73	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes	4c	9,139$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.89	70	30%21 W · 49 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	15cpaid	+250.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes	9c	9,138$822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$822.15	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-42%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe073…942fbacked Yes	11c	9,058$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes	3c	8,982$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259	112	22.3%25 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes	7c	8,928$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.23	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafb9…10cebacked Yes	5c	8,915$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes	7c	8,729$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.2	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	6c	8,071$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes	7c	8,066$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.61	103	27.2%28 W · 75 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes	1c	8,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	57	12.3%7 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes	6c	7,974$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.03	316	49.7%157 W · 159 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes	4c	7,919$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+406.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes	6c	7,876$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.6	187	38%71 W · 116 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-19%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes	7c	7,844$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.44	306	35.9%110 W · 196 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes	7c	7,828$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.96	86	36%31 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes	3c	7,828$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+1,025.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x725a…43eebacked Yes	3c	7,643$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.05	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0176…d7f8backed Yes	3c	7,400$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?this page
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event