TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$951,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$981,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $951,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2e4…75f7backed Yes33c57,432$18,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,479.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+149.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0cd…3be3backed No67c57,432$38,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,479.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7e…70ddbacked No67c56,623$37,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,937.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc61…805dbacked Yes33c56,623$18,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,937.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+136.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4548…2be2backed Yes43c38,922$16,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,185.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+105.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b7d…748bbacked No57c38,922$22,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,185.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc5…50bbbacked Yes35c37,547$13,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,405.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2883…293dbacked No65c37,547$24,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,405.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…8240backed Yes52c36,211$18,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,381.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122f…0412backed No48c36,211$17,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,381.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8869…6f1ebacked No65c31,922$20,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,749.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2f…fd3bbacked Yes35c31,922$11,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,749.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ef5…6119backed Yes39c31,902$12,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,460.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa86c…a8c3backed No61c31,902$19,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,460.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3253…03f9backed No42c29,867$12,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,544.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5118…8488backed Yes58c29,867$17,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,544.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b39…7729backed Yes59c27,299$16,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,192.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca29…5986backed No41c27,299$11,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,192.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cf…8060backed Yes75c22,724$16,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,759.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No26c16,201$4,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,202.842,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No22c12,103$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.183129%9 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes73c12,038$8,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,271.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f43…fab3backed Yes71c11,766$8,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes78c9,935$7,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.5213560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Yes69c9,322$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.523658.3%21 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Yes73c7,504$5,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,027.4129738.7%115 W · 182 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No29c6,586$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.94922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes68c5,555$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No32c5,066$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.6813133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes65c4,941$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.765230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes37c3,514$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.1835942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b57…31e3backed Yes75c3,343$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed No19c2,779$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.673935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+57.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504323.3%10 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No27c2,455$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.661,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No24c2,303$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.62638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No20c2,277$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.571,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No31c2,262$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.3616537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No64c2,191$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.2444740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes46c2,184$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.8514727.9%41 W · 106 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked No19c2,137$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.971060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes79c1,811$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.811,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes55c1,753$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.516764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No30c1,625$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.55855.2%32 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes75c1,587$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.461936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd428…5f21backed Yes35c1,419$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes79c1,385$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.321450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…3ae7backed Yes67c1,243$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6012…7cd2backed Yes78c1,179$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.774854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes74c1,117$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.6827546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes76c1,001$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.61,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-86%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes53c1,000$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.538743.7%38 W · 49 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No8c980.42$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.41147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-89.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes66c955.13$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.9422750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No56c927.55$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.751,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked No60c728.72$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.28521.2%18 W · 67 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid+33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked No16c683.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.585347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes59c654.87$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1235049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No54c601.95$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes48c597.6$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No28c531.19$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5722041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No38c525$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1973935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Yes79c507.42$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4284957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Yes70c500.2$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3911251.8%58 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea89…f1a6backed No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes42c490$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.2875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda01…9694backed Yes70c475.41$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.62540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes68c471.99$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes76c455$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0835352.4%185 W · 168 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec01…6592backed Yes71c453.15$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9711344.2%50 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c436.22$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.362,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde46…577abacked Yes68c428.3$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2751…1678backed Yes48c420.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.187230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c394.24$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5226048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No32c375$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes77c352.68$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.311070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4aa…5e57backed Yes70c342.86$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-59.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No18c335.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.781,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No25c329.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.831533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes76c328$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46db…f7babacked No21c327.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x736c…7470backed Yes47c317.25$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Yes71c316.9$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.98634.9%30 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb220…b07cbacked No22c303.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes68c289.63$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6810542.9%45 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes64c269.35$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.691,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed No25c254.72$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No22c250.58$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8810450%52 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a3…f914backed Yes76c246.9$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.42450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.933638.1%128 W · 208 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No65c240.06$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.042,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a20…c0bcbacked No44c230.61$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b18…7e98backed No50c214.5$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a6…179ebacked Yes51c212.39$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab98…a89ebacked Yes73c210.96$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes79c210$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9514562.8%91 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.