TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,118 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes1c3,904$40 inLost-$39.916537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,266$17 inLost-$16.964517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…5eecbacked Yes5c1,997$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes12c1,377$159 inLost-$159.1422041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes10c585.64$60 inLost-$60.251926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes8c437.21$37 inLost-$371,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca64…4a48backed Yes4c400.12$15 inLost-$15.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c338.13$20 inLost-$19.741,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c251$28 inLost-$27.6126048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes4c250$11 inLost-$11.183935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes15c223$33 inLost-$33.1635942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb411…120ebacked Yes12c177$22 inLost-$21.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d6…19c1backed Yes12c167$21 inLost-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6802…3e4cbacked Yes13c156$20 inLost-$19.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x109a…5b72backed Yes12c109$13 inLost-$13.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ec3…a10abacked Yes12c103$13 inLost-$12.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x183d…685fbacked Yes12c88$11 inLost-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba7a…8d39backed Yes13c80$10 inLost-$10.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…71eebacked Yes42c47.62$20 inLost-$204537.8%17 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.