TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,293 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes2c23,660$556 inLost-$555.853129%9 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,374$66 inLost-$65.561,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes2c5,500$129 inLost-$129.3219.5%2 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,384$31 inLost-$31.074517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes3c3,861$116 inLost-$116.092,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes3c3,860$107 inLost-$106.91,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes3c3,803$124 inLost-$124.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes3c3,701$121 inLost-$120.758840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed Yes4c3,559$160 inLost-$16015742.7%67 W · 90 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes2c3,352$56 inLost-$55.841723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Yes8c2,176$183 inLost-$183.265339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1415…f3f7backed Yes4c2,152$90 inLost-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes3c2,060$55 inLost-$54.737031.4%22 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa431…677fbacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost-$308417.9%15 W · 69 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-64.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Yes1c1,891$16 inLost-$1666732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes2c1,584$35 inLost-$35.011,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes2c1,414$34 inLost-$34.4814434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes2c1,177$26 inLost-$25.8741227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes2c1,001$20 inLost-$19.614422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bdf…1bf4backed Yes4c952.38$40 inLost-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-81%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c943.21$13 inLost-$12.561,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Yes6c772.45$43 inLost-$43.2319419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes3c530.01$17 inLost-$17.347929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…9d17backed Yes6c400.69$25 inLost-$251758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes3c400$12 inLost-$127337%27 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes3c385$11 inLost-$11.4939449.2%194 W · 200 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b4…0c6cbacked Yes4c312.33$14 inLost-$13.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfab8…0f9bbacked Yes7c305.03$20 inLost-$19.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c7…b077backed Yes7c298.04$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.