TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Nikola Jokic Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,974 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes6c19,555$1,203 inLost-$1,202.62317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c12,687$13 inLost-$12.691550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee4…c115backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes3c594$19 inLost-$19.3122041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes9c500$46 inLost-$45.517335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes6c479.87$29 inLost-$28.732638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1de2…d932backed Yes11c360.29$40 inLost-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes23c319.95$72 inLost-$72.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c217$24 inLost-$23.741,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No71c138$97 inWon+$40.575230.8%16 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eee…5d47backed Yes10c104.65$10 inLost-$10.152722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes15c72.01$11 inLost-$10.86764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e2…9d50backed Yes40c25$10 inLost-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.