NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7772451763d0a94e78a5b201c58a9d9a9047765bb6b9bbbc2f54a21feadb449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 16c | 4,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 18c | 2,224$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.63 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 14c | 1,656$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.43 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…5e3dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…05f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 13c | 923.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 818.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 17c | 588.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 18c | 477.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 20c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…e458backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…f390backed Yes | 27c | 101.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a7…944abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a64…118bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 18c | 87.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…8fa5backed Yes | 19c | 77.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…9d17backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…f9e0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 36.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-2?this page
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-0?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-3?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-0?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.