NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da8ef987be96b835cdc27e1c616edb3ab5191fcb7e3a266f1e31672eaa42e70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 4,055$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.8 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 21c | 3,030$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.85 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 34c | 2,927$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 20c | 2,644$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.31 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Yes | 19c | 2,587$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,351$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.07 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.33 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,786$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.23 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 23c | 1,182$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,178$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 34c | 910$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.96 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 15c | 693.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…cb74backed Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 428.72$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 33c | 274$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 100.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…af6ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 15c | 87.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked No | 67c | 82.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…9d17backed Yes | 18c | 78.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…8fa5backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…431fbacked No | 80c | 59.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…31fbbacked No | 69c | 53.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…8027backed No | 80c | 48.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590f…5be8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-0?this page
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-3?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-0?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.