NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1694d4db9313e6f975346849830cf6de37ef2e78d1513831ccca13ff414e33a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 63c | 3,323$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 35c | 2,832$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.29 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 43c | 2,829$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.07 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…a320backed Yes | 76c | 2,623$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 0c | 2,365$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 98 | 4.1%4 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 67c | 1,889$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.27 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 77c | 1,691$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.35 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 3c | 1,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 31c | 1,293$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.73 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…0331backed No | 48c | 1,247$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed No | 23c | 1,203$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,173$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.75 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,100$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed No | 42c | 1,056$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 60c | 1,034$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.29 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 51c | 880.78$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.2 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 57c | 827.87$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.31 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 57c | 746.62$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 27c | 683.3$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.14 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…cb74backed Yes | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 24c | 497.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 65c | 491.8$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…0770backed Yes | 76c | 391.86$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 76c | 282.32$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 27c | 243.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.65 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 25c | 237.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 231.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 43c | 212$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 192.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 182.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 57c | 161$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3575…9a1cbacked No | 57c | 128.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9a72backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 65c | 89.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 24c | 87.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…4a51backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…f8d0backed Yes | 49c | 51.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…9d17backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 228 | 26.3%60 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…8fa5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 66c | 43.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 30c | 43.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…28ebbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaee…8f06backed No | 66c | 35.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6a…f057backed Yes | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…5164backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…410abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1f…72f0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-1?this page
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-0?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-3?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-0?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.