NBA · resolved market
Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc8ae787464f433e35a9ab2e82d6ff23edf63350a5503c57ae358fbaafdf1ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x883e…31dfbacked Yes | 8c | 7,214$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.44 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 7c | 4,615$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,349$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 4c | 1,943$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 999.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 3c | 650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 480$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 452.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…ce53backed Yes | 11c | 450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…0c86backed Yes | 5c | 287.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 159$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…a932backed Yes | 9c | 127.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-3?this page
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-0?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-3?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-0?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.