Us Politics · resolved market
Will anyone say "COVID" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8a39e8134d5a98f3b0c33e8e808b58ea09bac8f365b372beb32bd17be99e71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 21c | 1,494$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.36 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 78c | 654$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 33c | 351.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 80c | 250.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 78c | 192$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 80c | 162$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 79c | 149.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 20c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…b64ebacked Yes | 79c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d75…ab74backed Yes | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…a093backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "COVID" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?this page
- Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?No won
- Will anyone say "ICE" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Knicks" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?No won
- Will anyone say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?No won
- Will anyone say "Pizza" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?No won
- Will anyone say "Sanctuary City" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Subway" 5+ times during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Trump" 15+ times during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.