Movies · resolved market
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07dcd94fe6481a8bcf124f69980d7a25fe7bef308d227366530c4e5b1e084cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x173c…bf6fbacked Yes | 9c | 42,421$3,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,859.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 5c | 13,987$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 10,345$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.9 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 3c | 9,376$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 12c | 7,982$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 7,085$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.75 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 2c | 6,285$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 5,894$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,012$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 4c | 3,802$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes | 6c | 2,384$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 4c | 2,019$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 19c | 1,926$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.68 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 1c | 1,845$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,741$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,499$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 9c | 1,397$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,336$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 11c | 1,208$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 11c | 1,118$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 9c | 1,038$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 960$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 20c | 937$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…b07ebacked Yes | 5c | 829.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…a093backed Yes | 13c | 781.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 8c | 727.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 6c | 715.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 14c | 699.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 3c | 697.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 20c | 658$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 12c | 640.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 7c | 594.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…5bc6backed Yes | 16c | 593.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388d…e1c8backed Yes | 18c | 543.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 12c | 499.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 9c | 482.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6be5backed Yes | 5c | 480.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 3c | 478.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…b8dbbacked Yes | 4c | 448$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 13c | 447.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 444.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 12c | 419.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 391.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 4c | 389.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 3c | 361$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 17c | 349.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 14c | 336$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2703…579fbacked Yes | 11c | 283.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…fe2bbacked Yes | 4c | 270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 15c | 261.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…1becbacked Yes | 11c | 260.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…5a19backed Yes | 6c | 256$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb60…2328backed Yes | 4c | 256$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…46abbacked Yes | 10c | 243.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…34e1backed Yes | 13c | 236.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…7571backed Yes | 18c | 225.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…31dcbacked Yes | 10c | 223.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…6987backed Yes | 22c | 222.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…3c70backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 13c | 165.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb036…c628backed Yes | 15c | 133.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…a457backed Yes | 10c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 16c | 84.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…fb44backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…374ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.