Movies · resolved market
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3bbd41636969c507b91cafaf78fd071f6ac5d0c334b5b683c16cf5fa575dc2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1699…80e2backed Yes | 0c | 53,689$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 7,137$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.37 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 11c | 6,000$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.92 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,758$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 0c | 5,187$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 5,033$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 3c | 3,903$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 3,200$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 3,089$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,936$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 9c | 2,822$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.24 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,500$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.93 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 2,259$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.63 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 4c | 1,836$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 6c | 1,728$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…f1ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,703$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +541.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,674$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 44c | 1,653$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 29c | 1,443$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.52 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 2c | 1,441$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 14c | 1,097$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 32c | 970.26$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.99 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 18c | 953.15$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 828.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 11c | 786.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 8c | 685.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 24c | 591$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 4c | 535.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 5c | 440.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 7c | 405.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 382.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 31c | 377.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 78c | 370.13$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 337.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 24c | 295.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13df…daa3backed Yes | 5c | 272.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 45c | 266.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 78c | 258.9$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 18c | 258$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…3c70backed Yes | 9c | 228.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 9c | 225.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 220.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 71c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…34e1backed Yes | 7c | 144.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 96.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 61c | 69.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…918dbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 24.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.