Movies · resolved market
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0281ee465710d72986ff4c2ef876b163bd51972ae7354e79bd4c8012f6add49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 4c | 11,974$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.88 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa411…7565backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 1c | 9,575$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 7c | 8,584$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.34 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,246$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 6,976$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 6,755$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…1986backed Yes | 1c | 5,828$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,198$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…6aa1backed Yes | 13c | 4,620$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 2,800$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,544$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,899$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 6c | 1,623$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.69 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 7c | 1,299$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,273$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…190abacked Yes | 1c | 1,091$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 1c | 915.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 13c | 725$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 2c | 483.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 5c | 471.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 4c | 391$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…d94cbacked Yes | 8c | 258.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…7facbacked Yes | 11c | 180.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 156.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 15c | 131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 14c | 103.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 78.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.