Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2267c7da34808ef3911dd530746a1977522695cbd1af57d877af345f2f6d7b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 29c | 7,147$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,069.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 71c | 5,861$4,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,133.92 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 34c | 4,674$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,062.96 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 31c | 3,907$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 65c | 3,781$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445.16 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 33c | 3,449$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.71 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 66c | 3,015$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.01 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 19c | 2,730$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.41 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 64c | 2,352$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.37 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,593$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 36c | 1,185$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.24 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 67c | 1,006$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked Yes | 15c | 985$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…b526backed No | 69c | 937.43$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…7e82backed Yes | 23c | 905$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 35c | 902.81$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.71 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 38c | 893$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.16 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…339fbacked Yes | 35c | 884.24$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +118%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Yes | 15c | 875$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 870$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 38c | 866.02$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.06 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 21c | 854.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +374.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 832.99$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.98 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 800.02$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.02 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 33c | 766.64$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…a632backed Yes | 25c | 760.32$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 27c | 735$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 29c | 711.88$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed No | 79c | 707.14$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked No | 77c | 600$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…195dbacked Yes | 33c | 536.41$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db7…44c1backed No | 77c | 395$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed Yes | 33c | 379.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 362.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…7f3dbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 33c | 286.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 35c | 260$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 252.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.74 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…b684backed Yes | 35c | 221.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 70c | 204$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 202.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…18d0backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 75c | 179.41$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 70c | 165.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 160.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…b29fbacked No | 78c | 139.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af3…9215backed Yes | 29c | 119.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 118$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…b88ebacked Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 24c | 115$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…f248backed Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…f0d8backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +304.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9845…3fc6backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 36c | 113$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…819bbacked Yes | 20c | 103.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 21c | 98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…4ed2backed Yes | 35c | 84.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 25c | 82.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 34c | 60.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked No | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…74f9backed Yes | 37c | 57.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…7ed7backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 34.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…2c7cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…e60dbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…6b17backed Yes | 41c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% or more in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.