TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccff…e845backed Yes34c5,261$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes41c4,694$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.672630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No65c2,545$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.9423330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes37c2,300$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85622433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes38c2,002$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.621526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c1,956$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.8919931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes31c1,400$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4341822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes40c1,398$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.968636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No51c1,119$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.2212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb47…bfccbacked Yes66c875$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes58c762.82$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.112045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…339fbacked Yes39c702$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+118%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes38c692.91$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.325032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No65c688$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.829144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes41c602.18$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.321625%4 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes31c600$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1833522.9%8 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c09…a632backed Yes49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2941330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No51c581$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5115…b61dbacked No68c500$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.597100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+78.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d68…4481backed No34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed38…4f73backed Yes66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes32c475$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.259024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb93…77b9backed No34c470$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6623…789dbacked No34c415$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10c8…56f5backed No34c405$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de4…2d29backed Yes40c355.2$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.081020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.56532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17d9…5c6bbacked Yes51c283.41$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+189.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…0dc2backed Yes66c260$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a3…67e3backed Yes39c240.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.12020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb008…5d6bbacked Yes60c225.2$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.14366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes34c216.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5136…195dbacked Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb00b…49ffbacked Yes66c155$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes35c147$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.924731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d3…4356backed Yes37c130$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1d…dc5ebacked Yes66c125$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd856…c901backed No34c115$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa1…74f9backed Yes37c109.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No54c105$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No40c98.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.822138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c92.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8820242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c91.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.215148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…1deebacked Yes55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x982c…7f81backed Yes66c85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes42c82.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.532733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes23c80.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.322623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8317528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b7…7843backed No60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb163…6062backed Yes61c65.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78f…07eebacked Yes67c62$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c00…b206backed No34c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No53c45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9798…01e0backed Yes67c44.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No56c43.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.882466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17aa…5ecdbacked No46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc82…f365backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec1…8621backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7baf…9eddbacked No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c7…7a75backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5a…5423backed Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f0…7ce0backed Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-68.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa35d…1ad2backed Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…763fbacked No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5cc…ccd5backed Yes54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9460…c7a4backed Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9220…fb1bbacked Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes32c38.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.472642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31f…819bbacked Yes54c36.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+102.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x197e…0c86backed No34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbf…9447backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5891…2c7cbacked No64c28.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes49c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes62c25.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4802…40b6backed No61c24.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…f762backed No61c23.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06a…ab3bbacked No62c23.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efb…3d11backed No61c22.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab6…f75abacked No61c22.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5911…1e06backed No61c22.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…5656backed No61c20.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5abc…4c6dbacked No61c20.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…44c3backed No61c19.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97d…196bbacked No62c18.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c7…50e3backed No62c18.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c37…1e02backed No61c17.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f38…7648backed No61c17.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdc…3104backed No61c16.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.