Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45dad8ba12f293fddce7a6decbc37496a9450250403cbf3e69815db286237d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 3,042$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.7 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 19c | 2,077$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.95 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 1,680$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,538$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Yes | 29c | 693.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed No | 73c | 665$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 80c | 629.3$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed Yes | 18c | 571.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 511.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 17c | 475.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…abf8backed Yes | 11c | 443.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 18c | 418$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Yes | 15c | 399.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 398.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 26c | 341.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 15c | 320$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 260.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 13c | 230$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 15c | 185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…7692backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…c2debacked No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 23c | 93.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…d991backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 18c | 82.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 61.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2563…f528backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% or more in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.