Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
March Madness: Will 4 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9c79342289dd7780d97cc85946480d3395a55bd8d819cc483a53884dc979f91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Yes | 10c | 7,375$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,656.09 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,550 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 9c | 4,592$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 76c | 4,562$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.23 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 8c | 4,349$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,010.77 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 75c | 2,321$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.09 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 41c | 1,090$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.1 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…5ce5backed Yes | 43c | 480$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 12c | 423.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.99 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 57c | 398.13$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.93 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa937…dbb1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 26c | 234$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 225.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 13c | 209$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +695.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 202$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…5d0fbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 96.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 85.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 16c | 72.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…2c7cbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- March Madness: Will 4 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?this page
- March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
- March Madness: Will 1 team seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
- March Madness: Will 2 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
- March Madness: Will 3 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.