Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
March Madness: Will 1 team seeded #1 make the Final 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7346828b55719ee24250a811d94b782e066a49a93a95872a95893e63555cd090
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -13.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Yes | 14c | 3,357$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.31 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,845$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.58 | 136 | 9.6%13 W · 123 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,817$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed Yes | 28c | 509.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 24c | 344.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3682…bcecbacked Yes | 29c | 342.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 19c | 311.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 302.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 70c | 300$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 28c | 184.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 13c | 139.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 20c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 28c | 53.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 67c | 46.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 72c | 35.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- March Madness: Will 1 team seeded #1 make the Final 4?this page
- March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
- March Madness: Will 2 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
- March Madness: Will 3 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?No won
- March Madness: Will 4 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.