TailMyPicks
Market

Token Launches · resolved market

OpenSea airdrop before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,343
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,343 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c7,641$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.426227.4%17 W · 45 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa160…7b21backed No55c5,945$3,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.291369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+50.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes44c5,894$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,605.052944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98df…935abacked No78c3,318$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.94988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No23c3,260$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.78875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+93.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes2c3,159$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x026b…1f5dbacked Yes4c2,997$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.19450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+71.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes27c2,765$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.5270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes0c2,755$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52263.8%1 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-91.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No69c2,475$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x463d…5990backed Yes5c2,350$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bc…b082backed Yes10c2,093$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No13c2,066$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.98052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb45b…8243backed Yes1c1,970$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes38c1,866$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No23c1,631$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.052853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1939…0f41backed Yes36c1,391$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c1,229$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8616740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No8c1,200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.83721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4f…dc37backed Yes1c1,142$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes1c996.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e5…18f4backed No65c989.67$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.31573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+33.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x616c…38e1backed Yes3c959.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…d330backed Yes14c884.96$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.38825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x669b…dd08backed No74c808.89$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes79c798.77$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes2c713.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8381…bd2bbacked Yes18c713.47$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dc…c1d7backed No25c706.95$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.594100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+123%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c13…e048backed No14c698.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+224.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes70c625.46$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.685623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db2…2bd8backed Yes2c595.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6091…972bbacked Yes18c594$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No5c575.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.221154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick24cpaid+331.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8529…b973backed Yes4c569.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No7c532.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.353013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c483.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.517663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafa8…8975backed Yes21c469.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcea…0b3abacked Yes5c453$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c427.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.277621.1%16 W · 60 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8790…b44ebacked No7c420.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+442%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e9d…3a63backed Yes70c400.14$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0ac…c2aabacked No25c395.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.392524%6 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7098…d124backed No56c381.39$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+75.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No10c380.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid+37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07a5…0a68backed Yes27c369.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes6c341.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c333.78$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8319336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd424…f947backed Yes33c311$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…495dbacked Yes17c286.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe297…314abacked Yes36c280.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbaa…b9f5backed Yes70c246.04$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes47c245$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.26342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No8c243.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.22575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdebc…9abfbacked No67c242.92$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+38.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed No70c241.94$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.942839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes8c225.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.483511.4%4 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c221.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.04573.5%2 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c207.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9233329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1581471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8790…c198backed No68c198.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.91580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b0…f9a8backed No70c183.77$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c182.85$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2921240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d9…ad9abacked Yes12c178.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes44c171.01$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9711833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed Yes76c164.94$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7b76backed No72c162.39$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b34…be64backed No70c157.6$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.92759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…b99bbacked Yes33c152$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…9f1fbacked Yes33c151.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x513d…d32bbacked Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b37…c410backed No67c146.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b6c…9d76backed Yes73c137.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes71c133.95$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c18…2fb9backed No37c133.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes71c126.13$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes9c125.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7416927.8%47 W · 122 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51cf…927bbacked Yes54c124$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…ba3bbacked Yes73c120$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc68…47bdbacked No58c118.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a7…05d6backed Yes69c117.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7364…d44ebacked No73c114.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc20b…2cc0backed No66c111.4$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e8…a3fdbacked Yes33c108.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…766ebacked Yes77c103.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc795…7604backed Yes20c101.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54723.4%11 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x733f…3c56backed No11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+796.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502010%2 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick17cpaid+470.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fb…c653backed Yes51c99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No38c97.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes26c95.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254738.3%18 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b8…bb87backed Yes57c88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78f3…5ad6backed No24c82.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e1…dde3backed Yes62c81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes35c79.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa46e…de2fbacked No61c77.09$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.