TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$761,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$777,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $761,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1e3…4aaebacked No0c148,265$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.761020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1123…2caebacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b1…1ea7backed Yes26c81,563$21,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,356.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5dc…5104backed No74c81,563$60,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,356.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd687…4faabacked No0c31,194$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick11cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…0843backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes69c10,942$7,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,389.997225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e5…38aabacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2abd…f959backed No0c8,040$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes18c6,449$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,261.054753.2%25 W · 22 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+77.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed No62c6,313$3,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,931.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No19c5,643$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.6611850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xf014…5945backed No0c5,638$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3735…b88abacked No0c5,185$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f9…37b7backed No0c5,103$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes18c5,080$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9587…8a10backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10277.4%2 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0554…da2abacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc502…14cabacked No0c4,856$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes21c3,190$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.286622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd29…a638backed Yes26c3,011$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.041070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+53.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No70c2,857$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.168047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes10c2,844$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,553.851435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes17c2,820$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+92.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7601457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No74c1,955$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.551752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes11c1,901$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.181450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes6c1,794$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+1,691.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes58c1,615$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.71030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacc…e985backed Yes26c1,589$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.62560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+74.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes19c1,561$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.71233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes36c1,449$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.742425%6 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes39c1,435$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.982334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes31c1,403$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.721741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d99…4a0fbacked Yes12c1,390$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+323.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No24c1,188$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.175527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No61c1,174$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed Yes15c1,172$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.361936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+87%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No58c1,133$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.044334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d48…6237backed No23c1,100$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.37728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,087$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.281,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes38c1,050$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.447932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c1,049$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.8757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes25c1,002$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+100.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.81926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.6wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-48.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No22c945$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.291258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+122.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes53c798.81$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.011450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed No4c710$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes30c694.98$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.522240.9%9 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick23cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes10c645.46$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.761942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbf…07a9backed No13c610$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…8628backed Yes26c590.12$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes44c543.56$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.365532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes8c541.88$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+180.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd478…4fa1backed No72c526.99$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab6…b4ddbacked Yes69c522.86$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4d…aeebbacked Yes24c512.24$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+109.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes46c504.89$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.911,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.0814033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes16c494.22$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.4327828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes31c473.35$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.138023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6983…fb47backed Yes5c457$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+676.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes78c445.45$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cda…3051backed No25c445.02$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b06…1065backed No37c412$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df6…30a9backed Yes46c406.94$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.592544%11 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf065…20abbacked Yes18c387.85$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.22475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+149.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No24c368.83$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5411435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa090…c736backed No66c366.44$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes28c333.92$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc813…44dabacked Yes61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes16c326.45$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.971546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes32c321$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.974847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e51…2e97backed Yes30c318.56$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.611346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f8…63febacked Yes32c316.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.224100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+157.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes30c292.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.732548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No16c281.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.98273.7%1 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c270$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.445723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No40c270$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1087038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8e…fe18backed No26c251.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.255132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed Yes40c249$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.43053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes17c240$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.27238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c227.51$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes47c222$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.473930.8%12 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes7c215$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+201.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes7c210$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.932842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes67c209.99$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.17317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes30c200.8$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.81643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d78…5b09backed Yes8c187.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+120.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes29c180$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1319043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed No9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c5…2336backed Yes33c168.75$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+204.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a6a…4846backed Yes71c167.26$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.091693.8%15 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick74cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c59…7259backed Yes10c163.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid+104.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No58c161.55$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.75653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.