World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764d117785396915741ed433c69ec2404c600f65f316aa15186e24bb52e9a4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $761,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $777,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $761,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e3…4aaebacked No | 0c | 148,265$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1123…2caebacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…1ea7backed Yes | 26c | 81,563$21,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,356.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dc…5104backed No | 74c | 81,563$60,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,356.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…4faabacked No | 0c | 31,194$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | -22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 69c | 10,942$7,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.99 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…38aabacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…f959backed No | 0c | 8,040$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 18c | 6,449$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,261.05 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed No | 62c | 6,313$3,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,931.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 19c | 5,643$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.66 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf014…5945backed No | 0c | 5,638$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…b88abacked No | 0c | 5,185$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…37b7backed No | 0c | 5,103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 18c | 5,080$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,156.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…da2abacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc502…14cabacked No | 0c | 4,856$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 21c | 3,190$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.28 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed Yes | 26c | 3,011$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,228.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 70c | 2,857$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.16 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 10c | 2,844$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 17c | 2,820$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 74c | 1,955$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,901$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,794$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,691.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,615$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 26c | 1,589$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 19c | 1,561$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,449$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 39c | 1,435$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 31c | 1,403$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d99…4a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,390$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +323.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 24c | 1,188$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.17 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 61c | 1,174$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 15c | 1,172$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 58c | 1,133$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.04 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…6237backed No | 23c | 1,100$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,087$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.28 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 38c | 1,050$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.44 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 1,049$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.87 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 25c | 1,002$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.6wins | -0.30per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 22c | 945$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 53c | 798.81$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.01 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 4c | 710$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +92%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 30c | 694.98$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 10c | 645.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.76 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbf…07a9backed No | 13c | 610$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…8628backed Yes | 26c | 590.12$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 44c | 543.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.36 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed Yes | 8c | 541.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed No | 72c | 526.99$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…b4ddbacked Yes | 69c | 522.86$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…aeebbacked Yes | 24c | 512.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 504.89$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.91 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.08 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 494.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.43 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 31c | 473.35$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.1 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…fb47backed Yes | 5c | 457$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +676.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes | 78c | 445.45$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cda…3051backed No | 25c | 445.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…1065backed No | 37c | 412$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 46c | 406.94$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 18c | 387.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 24c | 368.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…c736backed No | 66c | 366.44$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes | 28c | 333.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 326.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 32c | 321$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…2e97backed Yes | 30c | 318.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…63febacked Yes | 32c | 316.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 30c | 292.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 16c | 281.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 270$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 40c | 270$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…fe18backed No | 26c | 251.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed Yes | 40c | 249$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 227.51$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 47c | 222$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 7c | 215$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 7c | 210$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 67c | 209.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes | 30c | 200.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.13 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed No | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2336backed Yes | 33c | 168.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed Yes | 71c | 167.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c59…7259backed Yes | 10c | 163.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 58c | 161.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.