TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,088,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,093,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,088,284 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c9f…35ccbacked No54c124,000$66,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,96010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3db…ff3abacked Yes46c124,000$57,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,9601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea40…05a7backed Yes26c81,433$21,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,260.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53f…8707backed No74c81,433$60,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,260.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No55c41,590$23,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,005.7537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes41c36,537$14,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,550.9240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No43c17,414$7,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,526.4112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No55c15,204$8,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,366.1113850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No66c14,084$9,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,252.6620736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No66c13,165$8,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,735.7564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes50c12,205$6,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,143.943036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes50c11,000$5,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,550.396440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes34c10,708$3,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,066.8136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No29c9,849$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.212654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes26c8,098$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,003.47940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No72c7,887$5,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,682.772653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No53c7,522$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.3135347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes30c6,699$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,689.641258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No70c6,515$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5763458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes57c6,357$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,756.7616743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7307…6475backed Yes48c6,207$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,206.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No63c6,008$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,762.056942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes38c5,473$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,402.682025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes34c5,359$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,546.362828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No48c4,878$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.922445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes28c4,785$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No35c4,646$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.432347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes37c4,194$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.988037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes42c4,051$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,354.963713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes30c3,980$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.17610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes27c3,915$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.847429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No60c3,602$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.6619639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No38c3,032$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.292321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes22c3,009$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.597035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes33c2,977$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.311330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed Yes36c2,815$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.67955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No59c2,699$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.672552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes73c2,692$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.3851138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes38c2,586$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.522547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50f7…b251backed Yes50c2,495$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b5…6950backed Yes60c2,433$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b5…590cbacked No62c2,381$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes35c2,236$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.6415626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No66c2,182$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.6722262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes46c2,092$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.22462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No41c2,048$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.6520549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes36c2,020$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.698450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes54c2,000$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9306633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes24c1,957$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.7435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No60c1,933$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.811553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No50c1,820$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.183458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed No51c1,813$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.872231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed Yes23c1,800$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+118.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No23c1,750$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.53762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No49c1,630$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.2131649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60028750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes41c1,500$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8862528%7 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes39c1,500$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9151553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd95f…a6b0backed Yes46c1,381$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.23875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+70.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58b6…7687backed Yes40c1,300$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7801838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes20c1,231$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.372213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No73c1,127$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.0427047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ea…0140backed No77c1,039$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4405747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2d…9a97backed Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902045%9 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed No40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac9…d84ebacked No53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8933…1495backed No74c979.39$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…9d7ebacked Yes46c947.44$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.731931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6d…ee83backed No60c932.62$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes22c917.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.765829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes70c857.89$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.892259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9783…1495backed Yes39c833.86$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8643…4e84backed Yes20c824.86$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.86650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+91.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked No50c806.35$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes50c800$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…6e02backed Yes64c799.99$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf05…4a54backed Yes44c790.2$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.24436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes76c782.97$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No67c770.98$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.9540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No41c750.31$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0110139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes25c750$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.53148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No14c727$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed No70c723.09$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.472330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Yes58c722.39$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.692552%13 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick35cpaid+282.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31f1…b7c4backed Yes47c714.12$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…ae5cbacked No69c705.51$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d42…9b05backed Yes48c702.76$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes60c700$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.182532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed No44c680.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be0…4ee8backed No75c664.64$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.332441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c84…9fabbacked Yes75c663.11$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f3…06c3backed Yes25c649.98$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.982030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3366…e5bebacked Yes37c642.58$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.581258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes13c640$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.385642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes48c633.43$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.281010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes19c600$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48619829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2060…bfacbacked No26c567.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes38c552.44$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5211329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.