Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea13132c59f615355257c2c982685775ed223e2da2bc4e6464539c41fe99775d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $765,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $573,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $765,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 238,637$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.67 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…a4a5backed Yes | 1c | 148,680$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…4cb4backed Yes | 1c | 57,589$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 2c | 16,478$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,293$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 19c | 15,528$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.84 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 29c | 15,396$4,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,468.94 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8793backed Yes | 0c | 10,949$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 3c | 10,758$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.29 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 0c | 10,520$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 5c | 9,921$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.27 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 1c | 7,144$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 6,052$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.44 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 23c | 6,014$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.03 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 1c | 5,591$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 28c | 5,079$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 28c | 4,764$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.25 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 19c | 4,499$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 3c | 3,924$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 3,063$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 2,424$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.45 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,971$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 11c | 1,706$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.43 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 1c | 1,513$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 21c | 1,300$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 18c | 1,292$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.56 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…0dcabacked Yes | 3c | 968.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 26c | 940.56$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 15c | 891.25$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed Yes | 13c | 833.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 11c | 809.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 628$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 21c | 556.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…ea64backed Yes | 10c | 540$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 9c | 492.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 450.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3568…f3f7backed Yes | 27c | 445$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 21c | 437.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…09a8backed Yes | 33c | 425.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…2f89backed Yes | 3c | 396.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…0d78backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ab…ebeebacked Yes | 5c | 301$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 20c | 292.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 7c | 290$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…754fbacked Yes | 10c | 245$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…d09dbacked Yes | 18c | 243.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…6d35backed No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…8af6backed No | 73c | 165$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e23ebacked No | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…e06dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ed…4b7abacked No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…dbadbacked No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 14c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…443cbacked No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c03…21d0backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…1999backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…f065backed No | 64c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 72.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8ec3backed No | 64c | 72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 25c | 70.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d4…1492backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…c2a7backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65e…2b17backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 19c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…e925backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…e06ebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae0…a6b7backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…639cbacked Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…3e93backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 64c | 36.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed No | 78c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…7bb1backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…92e6backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…87acbacked No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769f…d0e1backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…26a0backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe6…b102backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…e976backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…e2c2backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c45…f37bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in March 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.