TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$435,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$414,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No3c37,166$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.181323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+114.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No0c37,145$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.723724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9149…c8bebacked No0c14,435$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a79…4249backed No4c12,207$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes61c8,303$5,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,229.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cd…d80dbacked No21c8,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No4c6,616$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.471827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c5,886$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0034…bc36backed Yes78c5,800$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e4c…c251backed Yes72c5,168$3,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae5…e9f4backed Yes62c5,081$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No20c5,065$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.161118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c4,953$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.75327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No18c4,540$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.687518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x772d…45bbbacked No9c4,292$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked No5c4,117$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No32c3,974$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.453315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No40c3,917$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.116030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No38c3,847$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.693622.2%8 W · 28 L-8.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-63.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No22c3,766$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.923831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed No43c3,743$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40c9…4266backed No4c3,647$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No16c3,634$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.413417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3e…5c4ebacked No5c3,492$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f36…89cabacked No14c3,184$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.211216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8895…d381backed No5c3,146$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…0d38backed No1c3,140$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a9…32c8backed Yes65c3,096$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c3,064$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.58712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1702100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No40c2,965$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2007949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed No21c2,936$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bcc…83c4backed No34c2,913$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No17c2,809$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.438641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe08f…ef55backed No9c2,808$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe5…7e2abacked No4c2,772$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No2c2,600$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…fa57backed Yes66c2,545$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c57…a6f2backed No31c2,529$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9e…7051backed No39c2,483$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No19c2,369$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x118d…67a8backed No6c2,311$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddd…1dd7backed No11c2,153$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b75fbacked No38c1,983$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No19c1,889$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1726238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b46…021cbacked No43c1,825$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdac5…0983backed No2c1,703$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes59c1,582$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78e…66e9backed No26c1,556$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d1…6903backed No20c1,527$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x660f…8166backed Yes71c1,518$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6669…42b5backed No3c1,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fb…9b84backed No3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2383…b556backed No23c1,488$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a3…9bb8backed No38c1,446$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x572a…5368backed Yes69c1,426$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked No4c1,420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cf…7c8ebacked No22c1,400$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3f…6e55backed No3c1,356$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff2…34aabacked Yes68c1,321$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…9324backed No2c1,311$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c6…b10fbacked No6c1,277$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f4…b8adbacked No40c1,251$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked No31c1,250$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.53237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…05f4backed No3c1,214$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No15c1,200$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.428510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x089e…b7bebacked No41c1,192$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc2c…abc9backed No26c1,186$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21e…70f7backed No2c1,171$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1490…b7e6backed No43c1,154$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17b4…3f75backed No4c1,110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfb…de50backed No24c1,100$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250f…239bbacked Yes72c1,078$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5459…6462backed No4c1,061$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No6c1,038$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad44…bf60backed Yes77c1,027$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5a…2afdbacked No1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked No1c997.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.964825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bed…5647backed No3c969.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1359…3fb5backed Yes61c952.66$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…6650backed No29c903.39$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No26c870.77$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.471154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8334…4888backed No14c838.21$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6b…0d98backed No3c831.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0a0…2054backed No2c800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No24c795.51$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.536126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd98e…9bb3backed Yes75c767.59$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No2c746.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d4a…1e3dbacked No3c734.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9316…1f87backed No3c729.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No19c725.27$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked No11c719.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.044829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d29…fef2backed No42c706.18$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d26…07f4backed Yes62c683.61$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c5…5466backed No36c670$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed No25c667.14$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.361020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d72…01eabacked No42c627.02$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450a…c24fbacked No39c616.26$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e8…18a1backed No32c608.84$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6861…434fbacked No3c603.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.