China Taiwan · resolved market
TikTok sale announced before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284ef81c8d207d194755b15c324035eb1a7ac7d1a23a38dd30d3fb97afa36204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,237,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,305,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,237,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 941 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 27c | 110,675$30,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,300.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…235bbacked No | 54c | 78,611$42,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,796.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 69c | 68,886$47,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,117.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 70c | 34,490$23,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,504.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…0034backed No | 75c | 33,576$25,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,340.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 46c | 27,931$12,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,950.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 50c | 26,942$13,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,440.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 49c | 23,734$11,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,722.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 3c | 22,350$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 49c | 19,194$9,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,411.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 45c | 17,361$7,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,519.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…2025backed Yes | 35c | 16,409$5,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,779.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd649…c561backed Yes | 62c | 15,026$9,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,372.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 53c | 14,439$7,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,853.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 76c | 13,417$10,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 38c | 12,156$4,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,522.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed No | 78c | 11,992$9,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 38c | 11,191$4,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 58c | 10,577$6,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,085.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 65c | 9,575$6,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 9,441$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 26c | 8,116$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 25c | 7,808$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 31c | 7,780$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 46c | 6,812$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…4c69backed Yes | 6c | 6,487$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 40c | 6,408$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,845.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 24c | 6,350$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed No | 47c | 6,250$2,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 25c | 6,216$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2e…c986backed No | 77c | 6,199$4,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 46c | 6,000$2,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,781.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 53c | 5,810$3,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,098.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked No | 61c | 5,598$3,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 36c | 5,468$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 57c | 5,344$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…3f0ebacked Yes | 20c | 5,300$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…448ebacked Yes | 61c | 5,116$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…702dbacked Yes | 60c | 5,019$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed Yes | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1a…a81cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 4,824$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 73c | 4,650$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 54c | 4,641$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 50c | 4,499$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 43c | 4,409$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,897.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…9700backed No | 45c | 4,201$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed No | 63c | 4,147$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked No | 50c | 4,026$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…7f0fbacked No | 71c | 3,922$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…2bb6backed Yes | 60c | 3,875$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 34c | 3,847$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 25c | 3,801$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 53c | 3,520$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 26c | 3,410$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 35c | 3,355$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 50c | 3,319$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…ab51backed Yes | 34c | 3,311$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 56c | 3,282$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d31…3dc7backed No | 63c | 3,180$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…301ebacked Yes | 60c | 3,132$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 51c | 3,104$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 67c | 3,095$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 54c | 3,000$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 47c | 2,996$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…dcc4backed No | 66c | 2,980$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,903$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.12 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…b4f6backed Yes | 34c | 2,883$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 74c | 2,881$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2a…1c6abacked No | 58c | 2,876$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,865$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked No | 45c | 2,789$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 76c | 2,785$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed Yes | 60c | 2,773$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 36c | 2,697$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 77c | 2,633$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 61c | 2,628$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 4c | 2,623$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 41c | 2,500$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd3…7b26backed Yes | 54c | 2,472$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 28c | 2,415$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,402$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 2,356$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 45c | 2,338$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,261$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…5e79backed Yes | 58c | 2,229$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 45c | 2,219$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 60c | 2,202$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 71c | 2,171$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 41c | 2,142$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 36c | 2,100$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…e927backed No | 43c | 2,047$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…57d1backed No | 48c | 2,039$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.