TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump declare a national emergency in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes67c5,128$3,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.427227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No30c3,570$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.4416943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0203125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes77c2,165$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.4211940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No26c1,742$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.53348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No29c1,359$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.147038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No33c1,293$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.335137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes70c1,292$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.217452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3831…c9bfbacked No6c1,200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-79.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab8…2a81backed No31c1,132$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35080%0 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No29c1,070$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.74136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d6…af98backed No24c999.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No34c953$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.029142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c916.66$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2286…c31fbacked Yes66c803.43$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.441275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No24c795.57$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked Yes73c786.47$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.821330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-42%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed Yes67c756.45$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.251450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf214…a9e5backed Yes72c754.23$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.851154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+86.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No44c690$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.62524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes76c684.29$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8716643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed No28c647$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.143154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed Yes75c629.12$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.281315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-79.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfec7…1bccbacked Yes56c605.05$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes70c600.2$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.451464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb73…c340backed Yes70c600$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No34c576.49$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0113537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No19c485.38$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.493859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f10…8ee9backed No32c461.76$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4758…a4b3backed Yes71c435.34$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No9c411$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0917713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5678…5ffabacked No40c402.6$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No27c382.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.264734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa59a…16cdbacked No13c364.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No28c351.74$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes57c314.38$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.388843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bf2…70f3backed No32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…02cfbacked Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed No34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7813029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa283…9c9cbacked Yes69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-79.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f3c…6ac0backed No34c289.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x008f…3104backed No35c287.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a5…9d0ebacked No37c266.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No38c261.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7413556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb68d…f913backed No8c252.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d34…5aaebacked No33c227.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ed…d37abacked No33c227$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked No27c213.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.523447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed No29c200.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.222025%5 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba01…1ebabacked Yes69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked No26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513450%17 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+123.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes68c194.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.317441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c183.18$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.081,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes70c182.72$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.294146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes56c173.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.31475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+43.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…aaf4backed No29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-81.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x881b…034cbacked No31c170$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked No27c156$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1270%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf241…a9a8backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No27c125$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6118914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac0…a602backed No25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe637…7fbdbacked No30c118.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No24c117.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.398646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed No30c114.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No27c114$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.786137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes74c108.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.111145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b37…6f1bbacked No45c108$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes64c105.57$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.578030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed Yes69c100.43$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.14944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf746…614abacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0380%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13ac…fcbebacked No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…92c6backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb296…0d53backed No44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed Yes73c95.24$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.243053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes69c95.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.523844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes59c94.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1935519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0c…af79backed No32c94.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x568a…89b9backed No28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ff…a209backed Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11e…b086backed No23c86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19bb…6b10backed Yes70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No41c84.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3128636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.068741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdba2…099cbacked No35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No50c71.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2331…f935backed Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5152…79a0backed No33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153417.6%6 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed No35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.24630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked No27c57.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.592250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes56c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a63…2eb3backed No31c51.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.872634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.