Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump declare a national emergency in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f105808d92db4a3203cd2db38b46982e6d484765b8938a9175d5986a279efe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 67c | 5,128$3,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.42 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 30c | 3,570$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.44 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 77c | 2,165$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.42 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 26c | 1,742$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 29c | 1,359$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.14 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 33c | 1,293$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.33 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 70c | 1,292$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.2 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked No | 6c | 1,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…2a81backed No | 31c | 1,132$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 29c | 1,070$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed No | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 34c | 953$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.02 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 916.66$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked Yes | 66c | 803.43$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 24c | 795.57$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.94 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 73c | 786.47$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 67c | 756.45$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed Yes | 72c | 754.23$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 44c | 690$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 76c | 684.29$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.87 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed No | 28c | 647$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…47e9backed Yes | 75c | 629.12$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1bccbacked Yes | 56c | 605.05$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes | 70c | 600.2$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 34c | 576.49$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.01 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 485.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…8ee9backed No | 32c | 461.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4758…a4b3backed Yes | 71c | 435.34$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 411$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…5ffabacked No | 40c | 402.6$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked No | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 27c | 382.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…16cdbacked No | 13c | 364.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 351.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 57c | 314.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…70f3backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…02cfbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…9c9cbacked Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…6ac0backed No | 34c | 289.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x008f…3104backed No | 35c | 287.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…9d0ebacked No | 37c | 266.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 38c | 261.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…f913backed No | 8c | 252.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d34…5aaebacked No | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ed…d37abacked No | 33c | 227$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked No | 27c | 213.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed No | 29c | 200.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Yes | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…966bbacked No | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 68c | 194.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 183.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 70c | 182.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 56c | 173.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…aaf4backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…034cbacked No | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked No | 27c | 156$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac0…a602backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe637…7fbdbacked No | 30c | 118.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 24c | 117.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed No | 30c | 114.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 27c | 114$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…6f1bbacked No | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 64c | 105.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 69c | 100.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…fcbebacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…92c6backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…0d53backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed Yes | 73c | 95.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 69c | 95.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 59c | 94.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…af79backed No | 32c | 94.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…89b9backed No | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ff…a209backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…b086backed No | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…6b10backed Yes | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 41c | 84.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…fc4cbacked No | 50c | 71.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…f935backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5152…79a0backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 27c | 57.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed No | 31c | 51.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.