Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x931a3f3c87db9003bda09a35e850b75bae01b37f72d4558075052cf96913fe47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $778,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $394,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $778,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 334,249$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.85 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 55,370$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.35 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…8073backed Yes | 1c | 38,600$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 26c | 31,897$8,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,421.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 39c | 11,734$4,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 24c | 10,749$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.49 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 36c | 10,711$3,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,880.21 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 10,474$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.81 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 28c | 8,838$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 38c | 8,164$3,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,128.43 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 1c | 8,083$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfd…cf1abacked Yes | 1c | 6,185$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 33c | 4,307$1,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.6 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 43c | 4,051$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,802$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.44 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 1c | 3,104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 39c | 2,592$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…9a00backed Yes | 1c | 2,494$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 14c | 2,387$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 41c | 2,323$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 2,237$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…403abacked Yes | 7c | 2,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…f803backed Yes | 9c | 1,973$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…ff50backed Yes | 1c | 1,902$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 32c | 1,748$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 46c | 1,724$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 38c | 1,694$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 34c | 1,672$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 5c | 1,135$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,098$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3cc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,090$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 68c | 1,033$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.87 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 996.74$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 26c | 980$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 7c | 971.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 41c | 835.97$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed No | 62c | 835.02$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 795.92$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.96 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…d54bbacked Yes | 3c | 717.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 39c | 656$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 36c | 652.34$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 36c | 650$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…febbbacked Yes | 45c | 640$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 597.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…ad9fbacked Yes | 27c | 562.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked Yes | 10c | 555.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 45c | 500.24$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 25c | 464.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 10c | 428.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1be…bdbfbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 403.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 20c | 401.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…b071backed Yes | 4c | 400.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 37c | 399.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 25c | 375$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 24c | 350$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 344.41$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 334.87$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 4c | 320$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked No | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 45c | 295.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…578fbacked Yes | 28c | 291.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 76c | 275$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…0deebacked Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 22c | 225.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 46c | 215.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…8959backed Yes | 38c | 212.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 210.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…fa8ebacked Yes | 11c | 207.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 51c | 195.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 25c | 190$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…becfbacked Yes | 28c | 189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…0592backed Yes | 42c | 143.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…86d6backed No | 62c | 137.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 30c | 137.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…845cbacked No | 73c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…3791backed No | 64c | 135.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…d6a2backed Yes | 38c | 134.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…9dc6backed No | 63c | 131.76$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b7…1f27backed No | 72c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 26c | 125.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…28dbbacked Yes | 12c | 123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…9ab2backed Yes | 21c | 121.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…d4e1backed Yes | 41c | 120.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…bed2backed No | 72c | 119$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f9…c5d3backed No | 61c | 118.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd319…81c9backed Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…8213backed Yes | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd34…c4b6backed Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…322dbacked Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4778…8effbacked No | 55c | 103.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.