Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbe717b301ef549131877fa04d44fe8e0f04136896b65b3dc5126ad5da50fce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,087,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,083,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,087,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 762 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked No | 0c | 206,479$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 48c | 56,264$27,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,172.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed No | 1c | 48,884$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d7…89a1backed No | 3c | 36,348$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked No | 2c | 31,040$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 2c | 30,000$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.63 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 28c | 30,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.99 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 55c | 20,393$11,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,128.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 13,144$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 41c | 10,782$4,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,351.89 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 18c | 10,720$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,761.6 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…f803backed No | 1c | 10,714$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 54c | 10,611$5,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,893.21 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed No | 2c | 10,530$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 59c | 10,025$5,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,072.13 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed No | 2c | 7,433$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked No | 1c | 6,475$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked No | 14c | 5,536$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked Yes | 72c | 5,231$3,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 75c | 4,578$3,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 63c | 4,400$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,765.99 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 29c | 4,363$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…e556backed No | 1c | 4,090$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 2c | 3,804$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 60c | 3,356$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,757$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 51c | 2,748$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…9a00backed No | 1c | 2,502$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 1c | 2,465$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 2,399$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.39 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 27c | 2,367$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed No | 11c | 2,358$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 40c | 1,926$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked No | 28c | 1,836$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…504fbacked No | 1c | 1,796$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfd…cf1abacked No | 1c | 1,672$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,658$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.13 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…0ef9backed No | 1c | 1,643$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 72c | 1,606$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 49c | 1,573$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…3714backed No | 10c | 1,520$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 80c | 1,471$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 48c | 1,453$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…93e3backed No | 7c | 1,447$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 60c | 1,410$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…8841backed No | 2c | 1,323$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked Yes | 72c | 1,275$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 63c | 1,153$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 57c | 1,103$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed No | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 27c | 1,074$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.37 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 2c | 1,030$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 68c | 1,022$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739e…00fcbacked No | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…febbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 76c | 927.64$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.57 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 70c | 884.93$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.84 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 71c | 852.92$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 43c | 820.62$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…0416backed No | 7c | 783.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 71c | 771.99$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked No | 13c | 769.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed No | 18c | 699.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed No | 3c | 679$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 18c | 670$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.4 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 75c | 667$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 69c | 665.05$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 52c | 635.38$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…227fbacked No | 5c | 581.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 36c | 554.29$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…016fbacked Yes | 22c | 549.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed No | 37c | 540.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 72c | 536$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabe…284fbacked No | 5c | 515.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 72c | 515.51$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 65c | 447$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 445.7$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed Yes | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 8c | 402.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 76c | 385.73$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 377.75$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c8…fcf4backed No | 5c | 357.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 56c | 356.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 43c | 350$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 50c | 336.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…f348backed No | 30c | 322.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…8124backed Yes | 75c | 300.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…5191backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed No | 23c | 299.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…0e42backed Yes | 44c | 299.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 35c | 286.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes | 71c | 280.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 39c | 280.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.