Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46fc88a8946c0d12f94e496141afae4bcceea70d8ceceb668b0cea10a1cfdd78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $998,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $459,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $998,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 546,654$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.17 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 1c | 38,695$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…75e0backed Yes | 1c | 38,337$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…578fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 1c | 21,565$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 19,669$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,555$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 2c | 9,979$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 18c | 7,965$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,247$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 5,476$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 0c | 5,436$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0bd5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ab…ebeebacked Yes | 1c | 4,527$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 3c | 4,097$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…e556backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…035abacked Yes | 0c | 3,647$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9426…730ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,470$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed Yes | 2c | 3,433$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…fc56backed Yes | 2c | 3,041$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…911fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…7679backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 21c | 2,378$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…403abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…f803backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 3c | 1,534$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 2c | 1,528$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…9ab2backed Yes | 1c | 1,304$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 14c | 1,227$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…3714backed Yes | 1c | 1,160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…4bc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 15c | 1,020$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…5e19backed Yes | 2c | 940$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 11c | 850$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 839.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 675.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 1c | 671.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…299cbacked Yes | 2c | 637.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 10c | 322$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 202.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 16c | 195.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 139.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 17c | 108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 75c | 63.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.