Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae350d4ababffcb1f2f53dab656b95cd8e7154bd79b78e0bcedc85b499ce6efe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,001,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $810,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,001,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 339,882$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.89 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 4c | 198,700$7,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,185.97 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d7…89a1backed Yes | 3c | 65,391$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 2c | 41,001$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 11c | 22,602$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 1c | 21,666$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 16c | 19,746$3,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.94 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 19c | 16,676$3,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,158.79 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 10c | 16,555$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 9c | 12,123$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,389$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 8,371$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.31 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed Yes | 7c | 7,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 5,362$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…578fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…1b93backed Yes | 11c | 4,824$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfd…cf1abacked Yes | 0c | 4,409$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 10c | 4,041$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…403abacked Yes | 2c | 3,250$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 20c | 3,200$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…e556backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 2c | 2,779$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 2c | 2,707$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…ff50backed Yes | 0c | 2,589$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1be…bdbfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,191$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…8841backed Yes | 1c | 2,155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 25c | 2,025$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…f348backed Yes | 5c | 1,864$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…f803backed Yes | 1c | 1,587$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…ad9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,511$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,496$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 23c | 1,446$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 78c | 1,300$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 9c | 1,264$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 20c | 1,227$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…3714backed Yes | 3c | 1,131$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked Yes | 22c | 910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 3c | 888$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…f18cbacked Yes | 5c | 816.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes | 21c | 565.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed Yes | 4c | 509.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…ee65backed Yes | 2c | 460$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…9ab2backed Yes | 6c | 417.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 336$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…5d71backed Yes | 10c | 279.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…1ddcbacked Yes | 4c | 266.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…5e19backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 28c | 233$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 32c | 202.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…299cbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 35c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…efb5backed Yes | 31c | 77.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 70c | 76.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…274ebacked No | 70c | 74.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc4…308dbacked No | 70c | 67.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…dcfdbacked Yes | 31c | 65.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…1a4ebacked No | 70c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in January 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in January 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.