Token Launches · resolved market
Will $TRUMP hit $10B FDV by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab161abeb228253d7b0de3a82d0d2e2c673f8c62281fbcec6c29a2a08a85ec45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked No | 0c | 10,739$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…8465backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee7…6dd3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 27c | 9,795$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…118fbacked No | 9c | 6,385$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 73c | 5,182$3,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.88 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked No | 1c | 2,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +107%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 25c | 1,856$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 1,635$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 76c | 1,592$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.22 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 11c | 1,424$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 2c | 1,330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 47c | 1,110$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 76c | 892.4$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 75c | 444$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…5fbfbacked No | 16c | 424.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 79c | 300$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +192.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…fe08backed Yes | 65c | 172.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 24c | 166.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 16c | 160.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 19c | 156.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…1910backed Yes | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 76c | 132.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 74c | 124.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +288.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6475…d281backed Yes | 74c | 69.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 75c | 63.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…6912backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 78c | 39.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6e…1b79backed No | 50c | 36.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…504dbacked Yes | 73c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…ee05backed Yes | 74c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f4…acd0backed Yes | 78c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef97…9790backed Yes | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.