Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x722b18e9603c9b1a6fb1feca5a40817613c72980b3f87c6e6d4c73f1dd2372a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 73c | 15,221$11,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081.93 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…578fbacked No | 25c | 7,489$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 6,036$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.53 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 5c | 5,248$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 65c | 4,165$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.14 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 40c | 3,434$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 43c | 3,388$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.01 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…703fbacked No | 9c | 3,315$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed No | 24c | 2,620$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.48 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 13c | 2,608$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…e8f5backed No | 2c | 2,564$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 46c | 2,384$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 45c | 2,378$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.54 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked No | 3c | 1,918$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 79c | 1,882$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d7…89a1backed No | 30c | 1,836$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 1,751$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.85 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 50c | 1,532$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 47c | 1,530$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…2be6backed Yes | 37c | 1,527$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 39c | 1,513$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 41c | 1,213$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 16c | 1,127$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…5191backed No | 16c | 1,100$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…a4b0backed No | 46c | 1,012$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 43c | 985.69$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…febbbacked Yes | 41c | 900$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 14c | 894.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.96 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 55c | 883.98$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 74c | 850$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…031abacked No | 11c | 757$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 76c | 683$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 41c | 650$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.5 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 58c | 638.07$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 44c | 570.07$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.13 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a82…8dd9backed No | 11c | 541$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 39c | 535.57$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 56c | 521.61$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 514.47$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed No | 4c | 510$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…a67fbacked Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 62c | 459.34$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 41c | 444$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 41c | 399.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 393.82$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…d720backed Yes | 78c | 386.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 377.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 39c | 360.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.72 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 73c | 349.06$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 41c | 326.77$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.47 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 74c | 299.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 75c | 288.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 12c | 272.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 75c | 266.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 35c | 237.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.38 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 225.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4e…1370backed Yes | 58c | 225$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…51bcbacked No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 60c | 195.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed No | 52c | 193.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 78c | 191.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…cdf5backed No | 16c | 183$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4305…1a22backed No | 40c | 166.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 38c | 162.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 77c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yes | 38c | 156$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…8d95backed No | 29c | 154$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked No | 8c | 152.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a4…e883backed Yes | 50c | 138.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…0460backed No | 44c | 127.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 41c | 127.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 39c | 127.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b4…44c1backed Yes | 65c | 123.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…b7fdbacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…cd81backed No | 26c | 119$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…8599backed No | 39c | 117.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a58…5e2fbacked No | 28c | 117$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…5a9abacked No | 23c | 108.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…50dabacked No | 23c | 107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 66c | 103.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…8d7fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…aa3dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…3eb0backed Yes | 58c | 99.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 59c | 99.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…6231backed No | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…3b31backed Yes | 42c | 93.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…8ea7backed No | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…2a9dbacked No | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f4…0d7bbacked No | 61c | 87.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e15…729abacked No | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…a322backed No | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1ce4backed No | 33c | 85.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5401…4409backed No | 61c | 84.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.